The Bellwether – 112

Releasing the 12th issue of The Bellwether, as published by FMIC's IAG-Research. This is a fortnightly publication on market action and outlook. The following are the highlights of the issue:

• Oriental Petroleum (OPM) may Double Earnings on Galoc 2’s Commercialization in 2014. Doubling of Daily Output in 2014.
• JG Summit Holdings to Profit from 2013 Election Year
• Philweb Corporation Tests RP’s Online Gaming Saturation Profitable Online Gaming Network Expansion

Oriental Petroleum (OPM) may Double Earnings on Galoc 2’s Commercialization in 2014

Doubling of Daily Output in 2014. Galoc phase 2 will start commercial production in 2014 on estimated incremental reserves of 7.5m barrels (bbls). The abovementioned reserve estimate is preliminary pending more conclusive exploration results. These reserves will be on top of Galoc 1's remaining 6m bbls underneath, yet to be extracted until 2015 at the rate of 2m bbls per year.

JG Summit Holdings to Profit from 2013 Election Year

GDP Led. 2012 and 2013 earnings growth for URC are likely to be GDP-led plus inflation, which we estimate to be 8-9%. That suggests to us the 9-month earnings (for fiscal year ending September 30, 2012), up 4.6% to Php5.1bn, are seen to gain speed in 4Q ending September and further into election year 2013. Note that the abovementioned income level excludes the one-offs, a large part of which is related to increased market values of bonds and equity holdings. Growth drivers are strong sales value (volume and firm prices) complemented by lower input costs favoring the branded consumer food group, which comprised 76% (Php41bn) of the entire URC's sales of goods and services for the period. Inputs range from wheat, soybean meal, flour, sugar, powdered potatoes, all going into snack foods and beverages.

Philweb Corporation Tests RP’s Online Gaming Saturation

Profitable Online Gaming Network Expansion. With its 267 cafes, 15 of which are owned, Philweb Corporation (Philweb) is testing the limits of internet gaming cafe profitability. Its internet gaming cafes continue to grow and has taken on a regional thrust in East Timor and Cambodia. This is complemented by a low-key but best-selling gaming venture called scratch and win cards. Philweb had a business model that worked, with a 4-year profit run of 48% CAGR from 08's Php292mn to 2011's Php915mn.