The Market Call | October 2018

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Macroeconomy We maintain our view that GDP expansion in Q3 will exceed the 6% mark recorded in Q2 amidst exceptional strength of private and public investment spending, coupled with modestly rebounding exports. We think that BSP would raise policy rates by a maximum of 25 bps before the end of 2018, despite falling rice, food and oil prices, since bus... Read More

The Market Call | September 2018

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Macroeconomy The desired investment-led growth paradigm that now dominates the country’s development should continue at elevated levels, as large Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects (considered as private construction) add to the growing roster of ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects. Robust capital goods imports and the manufacturing sector output should add to domestic demand while exports should move into positive territory in... Read More

The Market Call | August 2018

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Macroeconomy We expect faster growth in H2 anchored on speedier NG disbursements and higher peso equivalent of the remittances. Robust capital investments and stronger infrastructure and capital outlay and better exports should, likewise, push further the expansion significantly better than growth in H1. Fixed-Income Market The local bond market shall focus on the domestic front—inflation, exchange rates, and BSP policy... Read More

The Market Call | July 2018

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Macroeconomy More recent positive real sector data, along with robust gains in jobs creation and bullish consumer sentiment in Q2 & Q3, point to a faster 7% growth trajectory in Q2. We maintain our view that inflation will have little upside and should taper off starting in Q3. Fixed-Income Market As local bond investors put more emphasis on the specter... Read More

The Market Call | June 2018

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Macroeconomy Very strong numbers in the real sector—infrastructure spending, manufacturing and new jobs—should combine with positive consumer sentiment in Q2 & Q3 to push Q2 GDP growth above 7%. Inflation will likely peak in H1 as rice imports have arrived, and US Department of Energy forecasts sliding crude oil prices starting June. With the latest BSP rate hike, the pressure... Read More

The Market Call | May 2018

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Macroeconomy Led by strong investment spending of both the public and private sectors, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) got back into a faster growth track with a 6.8% uptick in Q1, up from 6.5% in both Q1 and Q4-2017, equaling China’s performance and next only to Vietnam in East Asia. Robust domestic demand and production should drive the PH economy to... Read More

The Market Call | April 2018

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Macroeconomy The remarkable job creation reported January, NG’s commitment to continue spending on various Build Build Build projects, strong capital goods imports and other economic indicators pointing to a healthy growth, reinforce our view that PH will register a faster expansion in 2018. Fixed-Income Market With US Treasuries appearing to be range-bound, investors are more focused on domestic drivers of... Read More

The Market Call | March 2018

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Macroeconomy Superb annual job growth to January 2018, record $10 B FDIs, and strong finish for infrastructure in 2017 all point to an acceleration in the growth path. Significant upticks in the manufacturing sector and capital goods imports in January add to our optimism of above-7% GDP growth in Q1-2018. Fixed-Income Market TUS bond market correction in early March provided... Read More

The Market Call – February 2018

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Executive Summary Foreign direct investments (FDI) into the country streaked to a record-high of $8.7-B YTD in November even as domestic investors and government infrastructure spending drove Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to a 6.7% full-year growth in 2017. These translated into a 16.1% surge in capital goods imports in November. As added booster, exports posted slightly positive gains, while Overseas... Read More