The Market Call | January 2019

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Macroeconomy We expect GDP growth to go faster at 6.8% to 7.2% in 2019 compared to 6.2% in 2018. Domestic demand which rose by 8.5% in 2018 should boost growth in 2019. Investments, via elevated infrastructure spending and strong capital goods imports, will continue to lead growth. Consumer demand should recover especially in 2019, as we expect inflation to decelerate... Read More

The Market Call | December 2018

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Macroeconomy The downtrend in inflation which is expected to decelerate further to below 4% by H2-2019 is likely to boost consumer demand. Along with robust spending on infrastructure and capital outlays, election-related spending and job generation, we think that PH economic growth is poised for a faster expansion in 2019. We think MB’s policy hiking cycle has ended as brakes... Read More

The Market Call | November 2018

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Macroeconomy Sustained by durable equipment and construction investments and a modest rebound in exports, we see a faster GDP growth of 6.6% in Q4, accelerating further in 2019. Higher dollar remittances in Q4 should likewise support consumption and should somehow buffer the contractionary spending effect of inflation, unless the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) allows significant appreciation of the peso.... Read More

The Market Call | September 2018

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Macroeconomy The desired investment-led growth paradigm that now dominates the country’s development should continue at elevated levels, as large Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects (considered as private construction) add to the growing roster of ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects. Robust capital goods imports and the manufacturing sector output should add to domestic demand while exports should move into positive territory in... Read More

The Market Call | August 2018

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Macroeconomy We expect faster growth in H2 anchored on speedier NG disbursements and higher peso equivalent of the remittances. Robust capital investments and stronger infrastructure and capital outlay and better exports should, likewise, push further the expansion significantly better than growth in H1. Fixed-Income Market The local bond market shall focus on the domestic front—inflation, exchange rates, and BSP policy... Read More

The Market Call | June 2018

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Macroeconomy Very strong numbers in the real sector—infrastructure spending, manufacturing and new jobs—should combine with positive consumer sentiment in Q2 & Q3 to push Q2 GDP growth above 7%. Inflation will likely peak in H1 as rice imports have arrived, and US Department of Energy forecasts sliding crude oil prices starting June. With the latest BSP rate hike, the pressure... Read More

The Market Call | April 2018

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Macroeconomy The remarkable job creation reported January, NG’s commitment to continue spending on various Build Build Build projects, strong capital goods imports and other economic indicators pointing to a healthy growth, reinforce our view that PH will register a faster expansion in 2018. Fixed-Income Market With US Treasuries appearing to be range-bound, investors are more focused on domestic drivers of... Read More