Tag: Marketoutlook

Macroeconomy We expect GDP growth to go faster at 6.8% to 7.2% in 2019 compared to 6.2% in 2018. Domestic demand which rose by 8.5% in 2018 should boost growth in 2019. Investments, via elevated infrastructure spending and strong capital goods imports, will continue to lead growth. Consumer demand should recover especially in 2019, as we expect inflation to decelerate... Read More

Macroeconomy The downtrend in inflation which is expected to decelerate further to below 4% by H2-2019 is likely to boost consumer demand. Along with robust spending on infrastructure and capital outlays, election-related spending and job generation, we think that PH economic growth is poised for a faster expansion in 2019. We think MB’s policy hiking cycle has ended as brakes... Read More

Macroeconomy Sustained by durable equipment and construction investments and a modest rebound in exports, we see a faster GDP growth of 6.6% in Q4, accelerating further in 2019. Higher dollar remittances in Q4 should likewise support consumption and should somehow buffer the contractionary spending effect of inflation, unless the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) allows significant appreciation of the peso.... Read More

Macroeconomy We maintain our view that GDP expansion in Q3 will exceed the 6% mark recorded in Q2 amidst exceptional strength of private and public investment spending, coupled with modestly rebounding exports. We think that BSP would raise policy rates by a maximum of 25 bps before the end of 2018, despite falling rice, food and oil prices, since bus... Read More

Macroeconomy The desired investment-led growth paradigm that now dominates the country’s development should continue at elevated levels, as large Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects (considered as private construction) add to the growing roster of ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects. Robust capital goods imports and the manufacturing sector output should add to domestic demand while exports should move into positive territory in... Read More

Macroeconomy We expect faster growth in H2 anchored on speedier NG disbursements and higher peso equivalent of the remittances. Robust capital investments and stronger infrastructure and capital outlay and better exports should, likewise, push further the expansion significantly better than growth in H1. Fixed-Income Market The local bond market shall focus on the domestic front—inflation, exchange rates, and BSP policy... Read More

Macroeconomy More recent positive real sector data, along with robust gains in jobs creation and bullish consumer sentiment in Q2 & Q3, point to a faster 7% growth trajectory in Q2. We maintain our view that inflation will have little upside and should taper off starting in Q3. Fixed-Income Market As local bond investors put more emphasis on the specter... Read More

Macroeconomy Very strong numbers in the real sector—infrastructure spending, manufacturing and new jobs—should combine with positive consumer sentiment in Q2 & Q3 to push Q2 GDP growth above 7%. Inflation will likely peak in H1 as rice imports have arrived, and US Department of Energy forecasts sliding crude oil prices starting June. With the latest BSP rate hike, the pressure... Read More

Macroeconomy Led by strong investment spending of both the public and private sectors, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) got back into a faster growth track with a 6.8% uptick in Q1, up from 6.5% in both Q1 and Q4-2017, equaling China’s performance and next only to Vietnam in East Asia. Robust domestic demand and production should drive the PH economy to... Read More

Macroeconomy The remarkable job creation reported January, NG’s commitment to continue spending on various Build Build Build projects, strong capital goods imports and other economic indicators pointing to a healthy growth, reinforce our view that PH will register a faster expansion in 2018. Fixed-Income Market With US Treasuries appearing to be range-bound, investors are more focused on domestic drivers of... Read More