Tag: Marketoutlook

Macroeconomy Recent economic indicators point to a stronger Q4 and on 2020, with positive employment print and poverty data indicating better investment numbers for the last quarter of 2019. Household consumption would still benefit from this, softer inflation (on average) and low interest rates. The National Government (NG) will continue to ramp up infrastructure spending amidst the still-large fiscal space.... Read More

Macroeconomy The PH economy has returned to the fast lane with the 6.2% GDP growth in Q3, and we expect this to accelerate to 6.5% and above by Q4, as consumer, government and investment spending get into higher gear moving forward. Low inflation, huge job gains, and low interest rates will drive more robust consumer spending, while National Government (NG)... Read More

Macroeconomy We see GDP growth accelerating to 6% in Q3 and faster in Q4, as domestic demand revs up further. With inflation holding below the 2% BSP floor in H2, and huge employment gains (supported by 2nd lowest self-rated poverty rate of 42% in Q3 as estimated by SWS), consumer spending shall show even more robust growth. Significantly lower interest... Read More

Macroeconomy We are bullish on the economic growth and inflation fronts. We expect Philippine growth to expand by 6.0% in Q3 and accelerate further to 6.5% in Q4 on the back of formidable new job creation by July 2019, inflation falling to 1.7% in August on track to go sub-1.5% by September and signs of resurgence in National Government (NG)... Read More

Macroeconomy The expected rebound in government spending, the improvement in external trade, and below-2% inflation by August should help boost economic performance in the last quarters of 2019. Moreover, we think that real economy and financial markets will be boosted by the anticipated cut in US and local policy rates. Fixed-Income Market The global economic slowdown and trade war impacted... Read More

Macroeconomy PH economic growth should rebound by 6% (y-o-y) in Q2, and accelerate further for the rest of 2019 supported by the three domestic demand engines—consumer, government and investment spending—revving up to high gear. We expect a minimum 25 bps cut in US Fed’s policy rate in July and additional trimming of BSP’s policy rate by 50 bps and the... Read More

Macroeconomy The expected ramp-up in infrastructure and other NG expenditures should facilitate a rebound in Q2. Softer upticks in prices of key commodities, likewise, will provide extra boost. We think that the downtrend in headline inflation and cuts in the BSP policy rates and RRR will encourage higher investment and consumer spending starting Q2. Impact of El Niño on Q2-2019... Read More

Macroeconomy Elevated NG spending on infrastructure projects, coupled with the spill-over effects of the election should keep growth momentum in Q1 steady. Moreover, the downtrend in inflation print augurs well for higher consumer spending and leads us to expect cuts in reserve ratio requirement (RRR) in Q2. The peso’s recent gains should prove temporary given the huge trade imbalance and... Read More

Macroeconomy Economic expansion should pick up in Q1 from its 2018 pace driven by heightened infrastructure and renewed consumer spending. The fall of inflation to within BSP target range augurs well for consumer demand, besides the spill-over effect of election-related spending. The downside risk from yet unapproved fiscal budget could have a negative, albeit minimal impact on infrastructure spending in... Read More

Macroeconomy Investment-led spending, driven by heightened infrastructure work, major Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects in full swing, plus renewed consumer spending should propel PH growth faster to 6.8%-7.2% in 2019. We expect consumer demand to pick-up, bolstered by further fall in headline inflation (to 3.1% per BSP) and election-related spending, which in turn will generate more employment, should further boost domestic... Read More