Weekly Fixed Income Summary : November 5 – November 8, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Yields Drop on GDP Shortfall Outlook. We expect bond yields to be rangebound this week as the market digests the economic data released last week and as it looks towards the Bangko Sentral’s (BSP) monetary board for direction, who will meet this Thursday. GDP for the past quarter clocked in at 6.1%, slower than the upwardly-revised GDP figure of 6.2%... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 29 – October 31, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Wait-and-See Outlook. October inflation clocked in at 6.7%, unchanged from September and higher than the Department of Finance’s forecast of 6.5% but within the Bangko Sentral’s forecast range of 6.2%-7.0%. This brought the year-to-date (YTD) figure to 5.1% from 5.0%. Both BSP and DOF’s inflation outlook turned optimistic on stabilizing rice prices, power, and lower oil prices in the crude... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 22 – October 26, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
One More BSP Hike? Outlook. Hawkish signals from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) add upward pressure on bond yields that are already at decade highs. After returning from a five-week leave last week, BSP Governor Espenilla hinted that the next monetary board meeting will determine whether there’s a need for a final hike before the end of the year... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 15 – October 19, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Road to 9.0% and 4.0%? Outlook. Markets continued to be defensive amid inflation concerns and geopolitical noise abroad. In its biannual report, the US formally declined to label China a currency manipulator, something that could have given Trump ammunition to renegotiate trade terms with China. Although, the report did highlight that the US’ disappointment with China’s non-disclosure of its currency... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 8 – October 12, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Tight to Tighter Outlook. Yields continued to climb last week as risk-off sentiment cast a cloud over the market. Investors sought safe haven assets amid heightened negative sentiment brought about by the US-China trade war, while inflated inflation expectations kept local bond yields elevated. Inflation was expected to have peaked in September (6.7%) and while the fourth quarter is a... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 1 – October 5, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Rising Bond Yields Outlook. September inflation came in at 6.7%, below the BSP and consensus estimate of 6.8% but still within the forecast range of 6.3%-7.1%. This brought year-to-date headline inflation to 5.0%, still below the BSP’s forecast of 5.2% for the year but outside its target range of 2%-4%. Inflation was expected to have peaked in September but may... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : September 24 – September 27, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
BSP: Inflation to Have Peaked in September Outlook. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects inflation to peak in September, hitting a high of 6.8% from 6.4% in August. On the other hand, the Department of Finance (DoF) expects inflation last month to have stayed at 6.4%, while analysts and economists of banking institutions expect at least 7.0%. The 10-yr... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : September 17 – September 21, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Typhoon Lifts Inflation Outlook. There’s upward pressure on the yield curve, significant ahead of expected rate hikes by both the Bangko Sentral’s (BSP) on Thursday and the Fed on Wednesday-Thursday (PH time Thu-Fri). The former in response to 7% inflation forecasts by various institutions for the month due to the typhoon devastation: half a million tons of rice lost worth... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : September 10 – September 14, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Rate Hikes Ahead Outlook. Indications in the bid rates of the Bureau of the Treasury’s (BTr) auctions and in the secondary market show that the market is already pricing in a 50-bp hike next week. The latest 10-yr auction, which was fully-rejected, had an average bid rate of 7.64%, almost a full percentage point higher than the last done rate... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : September 3 – September 7, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Bracing for Another 50-bp Hike Outlook. Expectations of a hike by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in its next monetary board meeting this month are rising as inflation and expectations are peaking. August inflation of 6.4% exceeded both BSP estimate of 5.9% and target range of 5.5%-6.2% and even analysts’ expectation of 6.0%. Year-to-date, inflation is at 4.8%. Following... Read More