Strong Government Borrowing Appetite [February 4- February 8, 2019]

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
The Bulls Are Back Outlook. Last week, the market bought on better-than-expected inflation news but was wary on a rumored possible retail treasury bond (RTB) issuance. We expect the market to remain cautious of this, causing the yield curve to be rangebound on heightened risk aversion anew to long duration and a preference for the safety of the short but... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : February 4 – February 08, 2019

Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The market may consolidate between 8,000-8,100 this week in the absence of progress in the US-China trade talk (especially on intellectual property). The trade truce will end on March 1. The market will also take its cue from earnings results this week from GLO (February 12) and ALI (February 15). So far, earnings results (for full year... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : January 14 – January 18, 2019

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Bulls Hunt For Yields Outlook. Yields continued to drop amid strong demand that ate up the influx of fresh supply. Local investors are locking in and chasing yields at the possibility of further interest rate drops. In a BSP survey conducted recently, analysts and economists expect inflation to decelerate to 4.1%, lower than the previous estimate of 4.3% but higher... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : January 14 – January 18, 2019

Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade between 7,900-8,100 this week amid improving domestic macroeconomic picture and optimism over US-China trade negotiations after China is said to offer to ramp up imports from the US by more than $1trn over the next six years to reduce its trade surplus. However, China’s slower GDP growth in 2018 at 6.6% (albeit within... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : January 7 – January 11, 2019

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Fed in Wait-and-See Mode Outlook. The yield curve continued to drop on the release of a decidedly dovish tone of the Fed’s December meeting minutes and a moderate US inflation outlook. Despite raising its rates for the fourth time in 2018 last December, Fed officials indicated that it “could afford to be patient” with future rate hikes with inflation still... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : December 31 – January 04, 2019

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Yield Curve Mildly Down Outlook. Despite the influx of fresh supply, the yield curve instead trended down, giving a strong indication that the lower inflation outlook weighed more on market sentiment. The government has a programmed borrowing of Php1.2tn this year, 20% higher than 2018’s to fund its infrastructure program, with Php360bn scheduled for the first quarter or Php30bn more... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : December 31 – January 4, 2019

Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade between 7,600-7,900 with an upward bias as investors digest the sharp deceleration in domestic inflation to 5.1% and amid dovish Fed, monetary easing in China and resumption of US-China trade talk that could stoke renewed risk appetite. Key domestic economic data to be released this week are: money supply and bank lending for... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : December 24 – December 28, 2018

Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade cautiously above 7,500 this week ahead of the release of the December inflation on January 4 which the market widely anticipates to further decelerate from November’s 6% print and amid Pres. Trump’s announcement over the weekend of positive developments in trade talks with China. Meanwhile, China’s disappointing Caixin PMI manufacturing data for December... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : December 10 – December 14, 2018

Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may hold at 7,500 by weekend should the US Fed sound dovish which is what many expect in its last meeting this year on December 20 (PH time). Investors are trying to digest some clues on Fed’s policy path next year as it reassesses global growth prospects following weak economic data from key economies of... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : November 26 – November 29, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Yield Curve Downshift Outlook. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects November inflation to settle within 5.8%-6.6%, starkly lower than October’s 6.7% due to the sharp decline in global oil prices, normalization of rice supply conditions, and peso appreciation. Since its peak its peak last October, global oil prices have gone down by as much as 33% while local gasoline... Read More