Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : November 12 – November 16, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. PSEi may test the next resistance of 7,400 as market digests Monetary Board’s (MB) 25-bp rate hike last week, seen as a proactive stance to temper risk to inflation outlook, and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) downward adjustment of inflation forecast to within the target range of 2-4% for 2019. Other favorable news are the de-escalation... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : November 5 – November 9, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. PSEi will stay trapped within 6,900-7,000. Two reasons: (1) We bet BSP will raise rate by another 25 bps this week due to elevated inflation; October print was 6.7%, (albeit a deceleration on a month-on-month, m/m, to 0.3% from August-September’s 0.9%). (2) Disappointing corporate earnings in nine months of the year (9M18), up 5.5% vs full year... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : November 5 – November 8, 2018

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Yields Drop on GDP Shortfall Outlook. We expect bond yields to be rangebound this week as the market digests the economic data released last week and as it looks towards the Bangko Sentral’s (BSP) monetary board for direction, who will meet this Thursday. GDP for the past quarter clocked in at 6.1%, slower than the upwardly-revised GDP figure of 6.2%... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 29 – October 31, 2018

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Wait-and-See Outlook. October inflation clocked in at 6.7%, unchanged from September and higher than the Department of Finance’s forecast of 6.5% but within the Bangko Sentral’s forecast range of 6.2%-7.0%. This brought the year-to-date (YTD) figure to 5.1% from 5.0%. Both BSP and DOF’s inflation outlook turned optimistic on stabilizing rice prices, power, and lower oil prices in the crude... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : October 29 – November 2, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may test 7,300-7,400 amid expectation of favorable October inflation (November 6, estimate steady at 6.7%), third quarter GDP print (November 8, estimate at 6.3% from 6% in the second quarter) and amid reporting of corporate earnings this week led by index stocks ALI and GLO on November 6; MPI, ICT, SM, AEV, and AP on... Read More

The Market Call | October 2018

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Macroeconomy We maintain our view that GDP expansion in Q3 will exceed the 6% mark recorded in Q2 amidst exceptional strength of private and public investment spending, coupled with modestly rebounding exports. We think that BSP would raise policy rates by a maximum of 25 bps before the end of 2018, despite falling rice, food and oil prices, since bus... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 22 – October 26, 2018

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One More BSP Hike? Outlook. Hawkish signals from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) add upward pressure on bond yields that are already at decade highs. After returning from a five-week leave last week, BSP Governor Espenilla hinted that the next monetary board meeting will determine whether there’s a need for a final hike before the end of the year... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : October 22 – October 26, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to continue to be range bound as investors await the release of October inflation print on Nov. 6 and the third quarter GDP on Nov. 8. Latest earnings results were mixed (YTD) — MER (reported +14% to P18.2bn; core +9% to P16.7bn) slightly outperformed, while BDO (reported +6% to P21.5bn; core +13%), URC... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : October 15 – October 19, 2018

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Road to 9.0% and 4.0%? Outlook. Markets continued to be defensive amid inflation concerns and geopolitical noise abroad. In its biannual report, the US formally declined to label China a currency manipulator, something that could have given Trump ammunition to renegotiate trade terms with China. Although, the report did highlight that the US’ disappointment with China’s non-disclosure of its currency... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : October 15 – October 19, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may attempt to break the resistance level of 7,300 on weak volume as investors await the third quarter corporate earnings season that started this week with the release of SMPH’s results today (in-line with consensus) and CHP and PX’s on Friday (Oct. 26). Thus, market’s upward trajectory may not be sustained and may likely trade... Read More