Weekly Fixed Income Summary : January 14 – January 18, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Bulls Hunt For Yields Outlook. Yields continued to drop amid strong demand that ate up the influx of fresh supply. Local investors are locking in and chasing yields at the possibility of further interest rate drops. In a BSP survey conducted recently, analysts and economists expect inflation to decelerate to 4.1%, lower than the previous estimate of 4.3% but higher... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : January 14 – January 18, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade between 7,900-8,100 this week amid improving domestic macroeconomic picture and optimism over US-China trade negotiations after China is said to offer to ramp up imports from the US by more than $1trn over the next six years to reduce its trade surplus. However, China’s slower GDP growth in 2018 at 6.6% (albeit within... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : January 7 – January 11, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi closed today at 8,024.1 and is likely to approach 8,100-8,200 level as evidenced by rising volume (average value turnover of P8.5bn last week vs P4.7bn in the last week of December) amid eight straight trading sessions of net foreign inflows totaling P6.7bn. But we may see some profit taking as the RSI at 69.1 approaches... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : January 7 – January 11, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Fed in Wait-and-See Mode Outlook. The yield curve continued to drop on the release of a decidedly dovish tone of the Fed’s December meeting minutes and a moderate US inflation outlook. Despite raising its rates for the fourth time in 2018 last December, Fed officials indicated that it “could afford to be patient” with future rate hikes with inflation still... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : December 31 – January 04, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Yield Curve Mildly Down Outlook. Despite the influx of fresh supply, the yield curve instead trended down, giving a strong indication that the lower inflation outlook weighed more on market sentiment. The government has a programmed borrowing of Php1.2tn this year, 20% higher than 2018’s to fund its infrastructure program, with Php360bn scheduled for the first quarter or Php30bn more... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : December 31 – January 4, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade between 7,600-7,900 with an upward bias as investors digest the sharp deceleration in domestic inflation to 5.1% and amid dovish Fed, monetary easing in China and resumption of US-China trade talk that could stoke renewed risk appetite. Key domestic economic data to be released this week are: money supply and bank lending for... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : December 24 – December 28, 2018

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade cautiously above 7,500 this week ahead of the release of the December inflation on January 4 which the market widely anticipates to further decelerate from November’s 6% print and amid Pres. Trump’s announcement over the weekend of positive developments in trade talks with China. Meanwhile, China’s disappointing Caixin PMI manufacturing data for December... Read More

The Market Call | December 2018

Marwin Nunez
Market Call Banner
Macroeconomy The downtrend in inflation which is expected to decelerate further to below 4% by H2-2019 is likely to boost consumer demand. Along with robust spending on infrastructure and capital outlays, election-related spending and job generation, we think that PH economic growth is poised for a faster expansion in 2019. We think MB’s policy hiking cycle has ended as brakes... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : December 17 – December 21, 2018

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may still end the year at 7,500 level amid the year-end window dressing, albeit on thin volume due to shortened trading week. Key drag is the downbeat mood especially in the US due to worries over slowing growth which was further intensified by President Trump’s attack on Fed chair Powell over continuing interest rate hikes.... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : December 10 – December 14, 2018

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
BSP Hike Pause Outlook. The Bangko Sentral (BSP) kept policy rates steady last week as expected amid moderating inflation expectations. BSP likewise cut its inflation outlook for 2018 to 5.2% (from 5.3%), 3.18% in 2019 (from 3.5%), and 3.04% in 2020 (from 3.3%). Year-to-date, inflation averaged at 5.2%, way above the BSP’s target range of 2%-4%. As the year ends,... Read More