Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : October 8 – October 12, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may hover between 6,800-7,000 as rising domestic inflation and interest rates and global uncertainty about trade, rising US interest rates and escalating tension between US and Saudi Arabia over the fate of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi that could potentially lead to speculative spike in oil prices continue to dampen sentiment. China’s central bank governor Yi... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : October 1 – October 5, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may test the 7,000 support level amidst persistent negative sentiment arising from accelerating domestic inflation, sustained PHP weakness, rising interest rates and unabated net foreign outflows now on its 28th consecutive trading days. Key economic data to be released this week is the August’s balance of trade (Oct. 10) which is anticipated to hit a... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : September 24 – September 28, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to sustain its weakness this week as the market awaits the September inflation print to be released on Friday (Oct. 5) which is anticipated to reach as high as 7.1% y/y, coupled with lingering external headwinds from trade concerns. On a positive note, US and Canada’s last minute deal to salvage the trilateral... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : September 17 – September 21, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi on a downward bias due to run-away inflation worries. Despite the expected 50bps rate hike of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) on Thursday, the market may not do a relief rally back to near-term high of 7,500 given emerging consensus forecasts of 7%-7.4%. It implies inflation is yet to peak.... Read More

The Market Call | September 2018

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Macroeconomy The desired investment-led growth paradigm that now dominates the country’s development should continue at elevated levels, as large Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects (considered as private construction) add to the growing roster of ongoing and upcoming infrastructure projects. Robust capital goods imports and the manufacturing sector output should add to domestic demand while exports should move into positive territory in... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : September 10 – September 14, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to continue its downward bias as global trade tension re-emerged after Pres. Trump approved new tariffs worth $200bn of Chinese exports and threatened tariffs on $267bn more Chinese goods. On the domestic front, investors will await the Monetary Board (MB) meeting on Sept. 27 which is expected to raise policy rates by another... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : September 10 – September 14, 2018

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Rate Hikes Ahead Outlook. Indications in the bid rates of the Bureau of the Treasury’s (BTr) auctions and in the secondary market show that the market is already pricing in a 50-bp hike next week. The latest 10-yr auction, which was fully-rejected, had an average bid rate of 7.64%, almost a full percentage point higher than the last done rate... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : September 3 – September 7, 2018

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Bracing for Another 50-bp Hike Outlook. Expectations of a hike by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) in its next monetary board meeting this month are rising as inflation and expectations are peaking. August inflation of 6.4% exceeded both BSP estimate of 5.9% and target range of 5.5%-6.2% and even analysts’ expectation of 6.0%. Year-to-date, inflation is at 4.8%. Following... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : September 3 – September 7, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Market Outlook. We expect the PSEi to trade around its critical support of 7,500 amidst continued concerns on Philippine inflation and trade war. Locally, investors were shocked on August inflation of 6.4% which reached a 9-year high and exceeded the 5.9% consensus estimate and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 5.5% to 6.2% expected range. Consequently,... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : August 27 – August 31, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to hover around 7,800 with a downward bias amidst concerns on further escalation of the US-China trade spat and emerging market woes precipitated by huge currency sell-off in Turkey and Argentina. On the domestic front, investors will await the August inflation print to be released tomorrow (Sept. 5) that is widely anticipated to... Read More