Weekly Fixed Income Summary : April 30 – May 4, 2018

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BSP Hike Imminent Outlook. We expect local bond yields to remain elevated ahead of the Bangko Sentral’s monetary board meeting this Thursday, which the market bet will finally hike rates. The BSP’s inaction has weighed heavily on sentiment and the currency. April inflation, reported last week, rose by 4.5% year-on-year from March’s 4.3%, within analyst expectations but above the BSP’s... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : April 30 – May 4, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to move sideways early this week as investors await the results of Q1 2018 GDP and the Monetary Board (MB) policy meeting which will be both released on May 10. In-line or better results from consensus — Q1 GDP accelerating to 6.7% from 6.5% in Q4 and a 25 bp rate hike from... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : April 23 – 27, 2018

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Eyeing a BSP Hike Outlook. We expect local bond yields to remain elevated as the market is somewhat unanimous in its reading of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) recent signal of its readiness to hike rates in its next policy meeting. Banks are predicting that the BSP will hike at least once and as soon as its meeting on... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : April 23 – 27, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Market Outlook. We expect the market to trade sideways as investors await the results of April inflation reading on Thursday, May 4. There could be profit taking after the recent rallies and ahead of the expected rising inflation print for last April. According to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), consumer price index likely hit 3.9%... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : April 16 – 20, 2018

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10-yr US Treasury Testing 3.0% Outlook. The local benchmark yield curve grew steeper last week from the prior week due to resurgent US Treasury (UST) yields amid a rally in oil and other commodity prices, fresh UST supply worth $96bn this week, and renewed higher inflation expectation in the US. All these ahead of the release of US 1Q18 GDP... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : April 16 – 20, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Market Outlook. We expect the PSEi to hover between 7,400-7,700 amidst weak sentiment over the country’s accelerating inflation, overheating risks, and rising US bond yields ahead of Q1 earnings results. Last Friday, BDO announced its Q1 2018’s core earnings (+16% y-o-y, underperformed), while CHP and MER will disclose their Q1 results on April 27 and April... Read More

The Market Call | April 2018

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Macroeconomy The remarkable job creation reported January, NG’s commitment to continue spending on various Build Build Build projects, strong capital goods imports and other economic indicators pointing to a healthy growth, reinforce our view that PH will register a faster expansion in 2018. Fixed-Income Market With US Treasuries appearing to be range-bound, investors are more focused on domestic drivers of... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : April 09 – 13, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Market Outlook. We expect the market to continue trading lower amidst overheating concerns by the World Bank (WB). But University of Asia and the Pacific Economist Dr. Victor Abola noted that the country’s current account deficit to GDP ratio is far from crisis threshold of 5% equal to $15.67bn. Market Review. Last week, the market bucked... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : April 02 -06, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Market Outlook. We expect the PSEi to consolidate between 7,900-8,000 due to lack of catalyst. Despite strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the spectre of accelerating inflation, widening trade deficit, and weak PHP will continue to weigh on the market. Market Review. The PSEi traded sideways since yesterday to end today at 7,943.9. Last week, the bellwether moved in... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : April 02 – 06, 2018

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Rising Yield Curve Outlook. Bond yields will remain elevated amid (1) rising expectations of a hike by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP); (2) steadily rising local inflation (up 4.3% in March, based on 2012 index); (3) allayed trade war fears by Chinese President Xi Jinping, shifting money out of safe haven assets like US Treasuries; and (4) Fed hike... Read More