Market Insights Archives | First Metro Asset Management Inc

The Market Call | October 2019

November 5, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Macroeconomy We see GDP growth accelerating to 6% in Q3 and faster in Q4, as domestic demand revs up further. With inflation holding below the 2% BSP floor in H2, and huge employment gains (supported by 2nd lowest self-rated poverty rate of 42% in Q3 as estimated by SWS), consumer spending shall show even more robust growth. Significantly lower interest... Read More

The Market Call | September 2019

October 3, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Macroeconomy We are bullish on the economic growth and inflation fronts. We expect Philippine growth to expand by 6.0% in Q3 and accelerate further to 6.5% in Q4 on the back of formidable new job creation by July 2019, inflation falling to 1.7% in August on track to go sub-1.5% by September and signs of resurgence in National Government (NG)... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : September 2 – September 6, 2019

September 12, 2019September 17, 2019 Marwin Nunez

10 Years Firm Even with Dovish BSP Outlook. After the lower August inflation of 1.7%, a beat versus the 1.8% consensus bet, the market proved unencouraged, looking a bit scared instead and on a selldown mode in the GS market. As some big investors took profit and kept the ten year rate firm at 4.58% (higher today at 4.67%), that... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : September 2 – September 6, 2019

September 12, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Equities Outlook Outlook. Expect the market to consolidate this week to 7,700-8,000 level but with an upward bias as investors bet on fresh global stimulus amid weak economic data from China, US and EU. More support measures are expected from China after its exports surprisingly drop in August as shipments to the US sharply declined, while weakening jobs trend in... Read More

The Market Call | August 2019

September 4, 2019September 17, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Macroeconomy The expected rebound in government spending, the improvement in external trade, and below-2% inflation by August should help boost economic performance in the last quarters of 2019. Moreover, we think that real economy and financial markets will be boosted by the anticipated cut in US and local policy rates. Fixed-Income Market The global economic slowdown and trade war impacted... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : August 27 – August 30, 2019

September 4, 2019September 4, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the market to correct this week between 7,700-7,900, after it rallied for three straight trading sessions last week and amid negative sentiment from the latest round of US-China trade tariffs which kicked in on September 1. The additional US tariffs have slapped Chinese goods worth $125bn with 15% duty, while another $175bn worth of goods... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : August 27 – August 30, 2019

September 4, 2019September 17, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Less Than 2% August Inflation: Ten Years Headed Lower Outlook. Lower inflation rate guidance by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), 1.3-2.1% for last month, is not helping much to push down the ten year rate which continues to hover around 4.2%-4.4%. Some big banks are locking in profits, selling huge profitable positions and that’s keeping secondary rates steady and... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : August 5 – August 9, 2019

August 14, 2019September 17, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Liquidity Easing Outlook. Interest rates are moving lower on liquidity easing by the BSP, a trend likely to be sustained, also on the back of lack of news about an aggressive return by the government back to the bond market. Foreign borrowing was just concluded with the Samurai bond float this month worth Php44bn, which raised the foreign reserves buffer... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : August 5 – August 9, 2019

August 14, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Equities Outlook Outlook. The Philippine stock market may see more downside with today’s drop ahead of the MSCI rebalancing implementation by month-end, weaker sentiment on the GDP growth disappoint, and negative surprises on corporate earnings news flow like the latest on PGOLD’s -5% earnings and Semirara Mining and Power’s 26% drop released this morning. So far, earnings of the twenty... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : July 29 – August 2, 2019

August 7, 2019September 17, 2019 Marwin Nunez

Easing Outlook. Local yields may further drop this week as the market prices in expectations of Monetary Board’s (MB) 25-bp policy rate cut on August 8 due to sustained deceleration in July inflation of 2.4% released today and another sub-6% GDP growth in Q2-2019 (Quarter 2; 5.9% consensus) to be released on August 8. In addition, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno... Read More