Category: Market Insights

Liquidity Easing Outlook. Interest rates are moving lower on liquidity easing by the BSP, a trend likely to be sustained, also on the back of lack of news about an aggressive return by the government back to the bond market. Foreign borrowing was just concluded with the Samurai bond float this month worth Php44bn, which raised the foreign reserves buffer... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. The Philippine stock market may see more downside with today’s drop ahead of the MSCI rebalancing implementation by month-end, weaker sentiment on the GDP growth disappoint, and negative surprises on corporate earnings news flow like the latest on PGOLD’s -5% earnings and Semirara Mining and Power’s 26% drop released this morning. So far, earnings of the twenty... Read More

Easing Outlook. Local yields may further drop this week as the market prices in expectations of Monetary Board’s (MB) 25-bp policy rate cut on August 8 due to sustained deceleration in July inflation of 2.4% released today and another sub-6% GDP growth in Q2-2019 (Quarter 2; 5.9% consensus) to be released on August 8. In addition, BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. Expect the market to follow the correction seen in the global markets. The PSEi is expected to trade somewhere around the 7,700 – 7,900 support, dragged by global headwinds, MSCI rebalancing, and local corporate earnings. Trade war escalation will remain the theme in the global market for the week, although we may find some comfort from a... Read More

Macroeconomy PH economic growth should rebound by 6% (y-o-y) in Q2, and accelerate further for the rest of 2019 supported by the three domestic demand engines—consumer, government and investment spending—revving up to high gear. We expect a minimum 25 bps cut in US Fed’s policy rate in July and additional trimming of BSP’s policy rate by 50 bps and the... Read More

Rate Cuts Priced In Outlook. Expect local bond yields to remain rangebound as the local and international market have largely priced in the Fed cut this week. We don’t think US President Trump’s comments (“will only do little”) on the possible 25bps cut will change the Fed’s course. But the Fed’s move will reinforce China and E.U’s further lowering interest... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. The likely Fed rate cut and corporate earnings are expected to support the market this week at 8,100 but we recommend a hold on buying ahead of MSCI semiannual index review next week, August 8. Key economic data are scheduled to be released for 1H19 like inflation and GDP, unless there are positive surprises from these releases,... Read More

Rates Have Further to Fall Outlook. Expect local bond yields to remain rangebound with a downward bias as both local and international markets try to gauge the extent of the Fed cut by the end of July. Markets priced in a 71% chance of a 50-bp Fed cut last week after New York Fed President Williams said that it would... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. Expect the market to consolidate in the 8,100 – 8,300 level this week as investors remain on the sidelines ahead of 1H19 results. We expect SM to post steady growth as BDO is poised to sustain strong growth it showed last quarter and SMPH already announced it grew 16% in 2Q. For the other index names, we... Read More

Market Braces for Easing Outlook. The local 10-yr government bond rate is likely to be rangebound, from a low of 4.89% (today’s lowest) and 5.1% (last week’s high). The consolidation is on the back of the market having fully priced in all the pending rate cuts in the horizon, both that of the BSP (a 25bp cut as soon as... Read More