Strong Government Borrowing Appetite [February 4- February 8, 2019]

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
The Bulls Are Back Outlook. Last week, the market bought on better-than-expected inflation news but was wary on a rumored possible retail treasury bond (RTB) issuance. We expect the market to remain cautious of this, causing the yield curve to be rangebound on heightened risk aversion anew to long duration and a preference for the safety of the short but... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : February 4 – February 08, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The market may consolidate between 8,000-8,100 this week in the absence of progress in the US-China trade talk (especially on intellectual property). The trade truce will end on March 1. The market will also take its cue from earnings results this week from GLO (February 12) and ALI (February 15). So far, earnings results (for full year... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : January 28 – February 01, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. PSEi’s ascent is pricing in already the potential rate cuts (policy rate and reserve ratio) whose odds rose with the inflation deceleration. PSEi’s rally is in sync with the emerging market (EM) wide rally as it price in a likely trade deal between the US and China by month-end. The PSEi may trade between 8,000-8,300 this week... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : January 21 – January 25, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Global Slowdown Outlook. The Fed will meet this Wednesday, January 30 (PH time, Thursday, January 31) and is expected to stand pat (Fed futures prices imply 100% odds of a no hike) amid growing concerns of slower global growth outlook. This sentiment was echoed by the European Central Bank (ECB), saying that downside risks may necessitate significant stimulus. The latest... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : January 21 – January 25, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade cautiously this week between 7,900-8,100 as investors await the high-level trade talks between US and China later this week and amid renewed fears of US slowdown following disappointing earnings results. On the domestic front, investors will await the January inflation print which will be released next week and the start of the earnings... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : January 14 – January 18, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Bulls Hunt For Yields Outlook. Yields continued to drop amid strong demand that ate up the influx of fresh supply. Local investors are locking in and chasing yields at the possibility of further interest rate drops. In a BSP survey conducted recently, analysts and economists expect inflation to decelerate to 4.1%, lower than the previous estimate of 4.3% but higher... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : January 14 – January 18, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade between 7,900-8,100 this week amid improving domestic macroeconomic picture and optimism over US-China trade negotiations after China is said to offer to ramp up imports from the US by more than $1trn over the next six years to reduce its trade surplus. However, China’s slower GDP growth in 2018 at 6.6% (albeit within... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : January 7 – January 11, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi closed today at 8,024.1 and is likely to approach 8,100-8,200 level as evidenced by rising volume (average value turnover of P8.5bn last week vs P4.7bn in the last week of December) amid eight straight trading sessions of net foreign inflows totaling P6.7bn. But we may see some profit taking as the RSI at 69.1 approaches... Read More