Category: Market Insights

Yields Rise Ahead of Panda Bonds Outlook. The market is anticipating the issuance of $200-$500mn panda bonds towards the end of this month, which explains the slight uptick in yields last week. Recall that $230mn worth of panda bonds were also issued in March last year. The government is looking at tenors of three to five years as yields followed... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSE Index is expected to trade at the tighter 7,800 – 7,900 range, with downward bias, in the absence of catalysts to support the index in the near term, locally. We expect some selling pressure as the market turn cautious on the 1Q19 GDP results scheduled in May. Despite the lower inflation in the first quarter... Read More

Oil Continues Its Rise Outlook. Rising global oil prices due to output cuts led by the OPEC drove global bond and local bond yields higher last week. OPEC’s enacted output cut of 1.2mn barrels per day last January for six months which may need to be extended until the end of the year, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to consolidate within the 7,800 – 8,000 range after the index failed to hold above 8,000 due to the 2019 government budget impasse, global growth slowdown reflected in the recent cuts by the IMF and ADB for the global growth outlook and the Philippines to 6.4% from 6.5% for the former and 6.4%... Read More

Yield Curve Inversion Outlook. The local yield curve remained slightly inverted at the 1-yr against the 10-yr as the government borrowed at even higher rates than secondary market rates. The rate downtrend to 5.6% proved shortlived and unsustainable as the rally was sold down on the view it won’t take long for government’s strong cash needs to resurface despite an... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. We’re expecting the market to rebound this week and trade at the higher 7,900-8,100 range, encouraged by falling inflation affirmed by the lower-than-expected inflation print of 3.3% in March. The BSP stands ready to ease monetary policy amid a backdrop of challenging global economic outlook. Concerns of rising oil prices brought by conflict in Libya is offset... Read More

Macroeconomy Economic expansion should pick up in Q1 from its 2018 pace driven by heightened infrastructure and renewed consumer spending. The fall of inflation to within BSP target range augurs well for consumer demand, besides the spill-over effect of election-related spending. The downside risk from yet unapproved fiscal budget could have a negative, albeit minimal impact on infrastructure spending in... Read More

Supply Cut Sinks Yields Outlook. The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said the government plans to borrow Php315bn domestically (Php195bn in T-bills and Php120bn in T-bonds) in the second quarter. This is Php45bn lower than the first quarter program with the cut coming form the T-bill volume. The reduced borrowing coupled with the budget delay will keep yields subdued. Rate... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. We might see slow accumulation toward weekend and a sell on news stance by fund managers after the inflation number comes out this coming Friday. The trading range for the PSEi is a narrow 7,800-8,000, trapped within this range due to many concerns ranging from The dovish BSP will support the view there will be monetary easing... Read More

Recession Fears Outlook. A more dovish Fed and weak economic outlook led to a yield curve inversion — a recession signal — in the US (UST 1-mo: 2.49%, 3-mo: 2.46%, 6-mo: 2.48%, 1-yr: 2.45%, 3-/5-yr: 2.24%, 10-yr: 2.44%) which in turn spooked local investors. The Fed cut its forecast to no rate hikes for this year from two just three... Read More