Weekly Fixed Income Summary : November 26 – November 29, 2018

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Yield Curve Downshift Outlook. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects November inflation to settle within 5.8%-6.6%, starkly lower than October’s 6.7% due to the sharp decline in global oil prices, normalization of rice supply conditions, and peso appreciation. Since its peak its peak last October, global oil prices have gone down by as much as 33% while local gasoline... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : November 26 – November 30, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. The 7,400 level may become PSEi’s new support amid optimism following the US-China trade war truce that will temporarily suspend the implementation of higher tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese exports originally scheduled on Jan. 1, 2019, which helps ease concerns over slowing global growth. On the domestic front, investors await the release of the November inflation... Read More

The Market Call | November 2018

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Macroeconomy Sustained by durable equipment and construction investments and a modest rebound in exports, we see a faster GDP growth of 6.6% in Q4, accelerating further in 2019. Higher dollar remittances in Q4 should likewise support consumption and should somehow buffer the contractionary spending effect of inflation, unless the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) allows significant appreciation of the peso.... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : November 19 – November 23, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may sustain its upward trajectory amid improving domestic sentiment over slowing inflation and stronger peso. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and central banks in emerging markets (EMs) have done their share of rate hiking aimed at curbing inflation and bridging interest rate differential vs US benchmark will help ease pressure on currency. Dollar’s weakness amid... Read More

Economic Update: Growth Moderates

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Growth Moderates. Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018 (3Q18) expanded by 6.1% year-on-year (y/y), in-line with our (house view) estimate, albeit slightly behind the upwardly revised 2Q18 GDP print and consensus of 6.2%. Growth was lifted by robust government spending and investments, but was partly offset by weaker household consumption and manufacturing, and shrinking agriculture.... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : November 12 – November 16, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. PSEi may test the next resistance of 7,400 as market digests Monetary Board’s (MB) 25-bp rate hike last week, seen as a proactive stance to temper risk to inflation outlook, and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) downward adjustment of inflation forecast to within the target range of 2-4% for 2019. Other favorable news are the de-escalation... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : November 5 – November 9, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. PSEi will stay trapped within 6,900-7,000. Two reasons: (1) We bet BSP will raise rate by another 25 bps this week due to elevated inflation; October print was 6.7%, (albeit a deceleration on a month-on-month, m/m, to 0.3% from August-September’s 0.9%). (2) Disappointing corporate earnings in nine months of the year (9M18), up 5.5% vs full year... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : November 5 – November 8, 2018

Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Yields Drop on GDP Shortfall Outlook. We expect bond yields to be rangebound this week as the market digests the economic data released last week and as it looks towards the Bangko Sentral’s (BSP) monetary board for direction, who will meet this Thursday. GDP for the past quarter clocked in at 6.1%, slower than the upwardly-revised GDP figure of 6.2%... Read More