Weekly Fixed Income Summary : June 11 – 14, 2018

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Upward pressure on yields Outlook. Bond yields are expected to rise if the BSP raises its key policy rate in tomorrow’s meeting. But consensus expectation is that the Monetary Board (MB) will keep policy rates unchanged, digressing from the Fed’s hawkish tone set last week, citing easing inflation data in May. Despite recording a five-year high of 4.6%, inflation in... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : June 11 – 14, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to trade between 7,300 – 7,600 this week as the market digests the impact of escalating trade war between US & China and sustained PHP weakness. Key economic event this week is the Monetary Board (MB) meeting on June 20 where the market expects policy rates to be kept steady at... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : June 04 – 08, 2018

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Will BSP Follow Second Fed Hike? Outlook. We expect bond yields to remain elevated this week ahead of the expected Fed hike this Thursday (PH time). U.S. inflation also accelerated in May by 2.8% year-on-year (YoY), the fastest pace in more than six years, reinforcing the Fed’s outlook for gradual interest rate hikes while eroding wage growth that remains subdued... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : June 04 – 08, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. We expect the market to continue trading within 7,500-7,800 amidst shortened trading week due to observance of holidays. Additionally, investors remain on the sidelines waiting for signals from the upcoming US Federal policy meeting. The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are also scheduled to meet this week. There’s downward bias as the peso... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : May 28 – June 01, 2018

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Rangebound on Higher Inflation Expectation Outlook. We expect the bond market to sell amid the inflation news that portend of higher interest rates, keeping the yield curve firm to elevated this week. This is amid the release of May inflation number at the low end of the BSP inflation forecast band of 4.6% – 5.4%. May headline inflation spiked to... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : May 28 – June 01, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. We expect the market to trade between 7,500-7,700, with a downward bias as the market awaits May inflation data which is expected to hit a fresh new high, coupled with lingering concerns that US tariffs on its key allies could reignite a trade war. Nonetheless, we expect the market’s strong support to hold at 7,500.... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : May 21 – 25, 2018

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Rally on Dovish Fed, Flush Liquidity Outlook. We expect bond yields to trade sideways amid flush liquidity after the Bangko Sentral (BSP) cut the reserve requirement again by 1% to 18%, releasing an estimated Php90bn into the system. FXTN 05-72 also matured last week (Wednesday), adding another Php130bn. The cut was a move widely seen to keep domestic interest rates... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : May 21 – 25, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. We expect the market to trade sideways especially during the start of the week as thin trading continues. US and UK markets are closed on Monday while several ASEAN markets – Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are closed on Tuesday for Vesak holiday. Investors are still waiting for market moving events that will push the... Read More

The Market Call | May 2018

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Macroeconomy Led by strong investment spending of both the public and private sectors, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) got back into a faster growth track with a 6.8% uptick in Q1, up from 6.5% in both Q1 and Q4-2017, equaling China’s performance and next only to Vietnam in East Asia. Robust domestic demand and production should drive the PH economy to... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : May 14 – 18, 2018

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Sizing Up Second BSP Hike Outlook. We expect bond yields to remain elevated as US Treasuries (UST) continue to climb amid $99bn in new supply this week and as investors await the Fed minutes to be released on Wednesday (Thursday, PH time). USTs climbed to seven-year highs last week following the release of solid economic data; the 10-yr UST rose... Read More