The Market Call | June 2021

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Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Key economic indicators — the more than 100% surge in exports, adequate fiscal room for higher infrastructure spending, and steady price movements which may eventually soften should supply-side constraints ease — will help counter the headwinds in the job market. The latter weakened in April due partly to the renewed mobility restriction starting mid-March.... Read More

The Market Call | May 2021

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Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Despite another decline in GDP in Q1, a spate of positive economic news—such as, the outsized job creation, surge in infrastructure spending, surprising jump in exports, softer increase in inflation– may help the economy recover faster. Release of GDP caught everyone’s attention as the economy unexpectedly slowed down in Q1-2021 by -4.2%. However, the... Read More

The Market Call | APRIL 2021

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Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Positive prints from the increase in employed persons, expansionary PMI, higher NG spending, rebound in capital goods, and surge in remittances should alleviate market sentiment previously dampened by the re-imposition of Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ from ECQ). Moreover, with the NG cash hoard, we see borrowing headspace as debt-to-GDP ratio came from low... Read More

The Market Call | MARCH 2021

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Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy The additional “green shoots” of the economy— higher employment, slight increase in tax revenues of the Bureau of Internal Revenue, and Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 for second consecutive month—have boosted optimism in the economic recovery. The latter, however, will likely depend much on how fast the population gets inoculated with COVID-19 vaccines and the... Read More

The Market Call | December 2020

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Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy The further opening of the economy, the relaxation of lockdown restrictions due to the country’s winning stance against COVID-19 even without the expected rollout of vaccines and the usually ebullient Christmas season spending, provide the ingredients for a robust economic recovery. Despite their recent runup, crude oil prices remain relatively low and this means... Read More

The Market Call | November 2020

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Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy The Philippine economy will likely perform better starting Q4 as industrial production and exports have slowly improved. The robust recovery of China, other ASEAN countries and the U.S. economy should support exports moving forward. National Government (NG) spending should accelerate by Q4 despite the negative print for its growth in September as it is... Read More

The Market Call | October 2020

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Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Q3-2020 GDP will decline but in single-digits. We expect the industrial sector to lead the nascent recovery in the following months as the government continues to relax quarantine restrictions. The construction sector, powered by infrastructure spending and private residential demand, should lead the upswing, while manufacturing should improve albeit at a slower pace. Inflation... Read More