Category: Market Insights

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Key economic indicators — the more than 100% surge in exports, adequate fiscal room for higher infrastructure spending, and steady price movements which may eventually soften should supply-side constraints ease — will help counter the headwinds in the job market. The latter weakened in April due partly to the renewed mobility restriction starting mid-March.... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Despite another decline in GDP in Q1, a spate of positive economic news—such as, the outsized job creation, surge in infrastructure spending, surprising jump in exports, softer increase in inflation– may help the economy recover faster. Release of GDP caught everyone’s attention as the economy unexpectedly slowed down in Q1-2021 by -4.2%. However, the... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Positive prints from the increase in employed persons, expansionary PMI, higher NG spending, rebound in capital goods, and surge in remittances should alleviate market sentiment previously dampened by the re-imposition of Modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ from ECQ). Moreover, with the NG cash hoard, we see borrowing headspace as debt-to-GDP ratio came from low... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy The additional “green shoots” of the economy— higher employment, slight increase in tax revenues of the Bureau of Internal Revenue, and Manufacturing PMI at 52.2 for second consecutive month—have boosted optimism in the economic recovery. The latter, however, will likely depend much on how fast the population gets inoculated with COVID-19 vaccines and the... Read More

Reading Time: 2 minutes Macroeconomy We see the manufacturing sector leads the recovery in Q1 as PMI rose to a 25-month high in January, and should provide more jobs later on. Meanwhile, Construction will likely make a dent in Q2, even as infrastructure spending remains hampered by financial problems of small to medium sized contractors, but should gain traction in... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy The PH economy will see light at the end of the long tunnel in 2021 as it recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. Employment will likely increase in Q2-2021 as infrastructure and consumer spending gain pace with the growth in OFW remittances providing the needed boost. Exports will continue its positive mode as other countries,... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy The further opening of the economy, the relaxation of lockdown restrictions due to the country’s winning stance against COVID-19 even without the expected rollout of vaccines and the usually ebullient Christmas season spending, provide the ingredients for a robust economic recovery. Despite their recent runup, crude oil prices remain relatively low and this means... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy The Philippine economy will likely perform better starting Q4 as industrial production and exports have slowly improved. The robust recovery of China, other ASEAN countries and the U.S. economy should support exports moving forward. National Government (NG) spending should accelerate by Q4 despite the negative print for its growth in September as it is... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Q3-2020 GDP will decline but in single-digits. We expect the industrial sector to lead the nascent recovery in the following months as the government continues to relax quarantine restrictions. The construction sector, powered by infrastructure spending and private residential demand, should lead the upswing, while manufacturing should improve albeit at a slower pace. Inflation... Read More

Reading Time: < 1 minute Macroeconomy Although the deep dive in Q2 which impacts also Q3 suggests full-year GDP to decline by 6.5% to 8.5%, we expect a more positive outlook for Q4 with the Philippine economy slowly recovering and milder restrictions in place starting September. Inflation will be below 2.5% as crude oil prices remain low. We also see... Read More