Easing Cycle in the Horizon [March 4 – March 8, 2019]

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Easing Cycle in the Horizon Outlook. Former Budget secretary-turned Bangko Sentral (BSP) governor Benjamin Diokno signaled that monetary policy should be in sync with the Duterte administration’s expansionary fiscal policy — aside from economic data considerations — and that there is room for easing given that: 1) local inflation is trending down and heading back towards the government’s target band... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : March 4 – March 8, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade sideways this week amid mounting worries over global growth slowdown and dearth of domestic catalysts. So far, corporate earnings have failed to excite the market as results were mixed. Out of the 26 companies that have released their earnings, nine outperformed consensus, eight were in line and 10 were behind. This week, key... Read More

The Market Call | February 2019

Marwin Nunez
Market Call Banner
Macroeconomy Investment-led spending, driven by heightened infrastructure work, major Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects in full swing, plus renewed consumer spending should propel PH growth faster to 6.8%-7.2% in 2019. We expect consumer demand to pick-up, bolstered by further fall in headline inflation (to 3.1% per BSP) and election-related spending, which in turn will generate more employment, should further boost domestic... Read More

Inflation Downtrend Raise Odds of Rate Cut [February 26 – March 1, 2019]

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Inflation Downtrend Raise Odds of Rate Cut Outlook. Local inflation last February was a nice surprise, hitting 3.8% which was lower than consensus expectation (4.0%) and January’s 4.4%, mainly driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and transport. This dislodged the peso from strength from almost a year-low of Php51.710 to back to above Php52 on hopes... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : February 26 – March 1, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi is on an upward mode this week as investors digest the slower-than-expected February inflation print (3.8% vs consensus of 4.1%) and renewed optimism over US-China trade deal. So far, earnings results have failed to lift the market. Out of 20 companies that have released their full year earnings, six were ahead of consensus, seven were... Read More

Yields up on RTB Sale [February 18- 22, 2019]

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Yields up on RTB Sale Outlook. The market braced for the Php30bn 5-yr retail treasury bond (RTB) auction which was priced yesterday (February 26) and will settle on March 12. The Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) instead raised Php113.8 bn, a bit over four times its intended offering amid strong demand with tenders totaling Php121.8bn. We expect significant upward bias... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : February 18 – 22, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may hover between 7,900-8,000 on lack of clarity on the progress of US-China trade talks despite Pres. Trump waiving the deadline for the tariff hikes on Chinese goods originally scheduled on March 1. On the local front, full year 2018 earnings results were mixed — two were ahead of consensus (GLO, BDO), three were in-line... Read More

Rumored RTB Sidelines Market [February 11- 15, 2019]

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Rumored RTB Sidelines Market Outlook. Market is jittery of looming debt supply and looks upward bound. Around Php70bn worth of debt papers will mature on February 19, fueling speculation about an RTB float and just how much short of cash is government. The Bangko Sentral (BSP) also did not signal any rate cut or reserve requirement cut soon, which led... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : February 11 – 15, 2019

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Equities-and-Economic-Outlook
Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSEi may trade higher this week, between 8,000-8,100, amid optimism on US-China trade deal after the leaders of both countries sounded upbeat on the progress of the trade talks over the weekend. Investors will also closely await the release of the FOMC minutes on February 21 to look for signs that could veer off the Fed... Read More

Strong Government Borrowing Appetite [February 4 – 8, 2019]

Marwin Nunez
Weekly-Fixed-Income-Summary-and-Outlook
Strong Government Borrowing Appetite Outlook. Last week, the market bought on better-than-expected inflation news but was wary on a rumored possible retail treasury bond (RTB) issuance. We expect the market to remain cautious of this, causing the yield curve to be rangebound on heightened risk aversion anew to long duration and a preference for the safety of the short but... Read More