Author: Marwin Nunez

Easing Ensues Outlook. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut policy rates by 25bps to 4.50% last week but kept the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) at 18%, which disappointed the market that largely expected an RRR cut amid tight liquidity. The BSP indicated that it will discuss an RRR cut during its weekly meeting this Thursday. First quarter GDP came... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. We might see the index firm up around the 7,600 support. This support sits close to the index’s two standard deviation below the 5-Yr mean (-2SD) of 16x or 7,545 index level. Long term outlook remains robust as corporates manage to report earnings in line with expectation. Also the weaker than expected GDP and the expectation of... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. Expect some profit taking on rally this week which may bring the PSE to 7,800-7,900. Philippine April inflation came in at 3.0%, lower than the median forecast of 3.1%. We believe that despite the easing inflation, this will be offset by weakness in 1Q19 Philippine GDP and heightened volatility brought by Trump’s tough stance on tariff against... Read More

Policy Easing Outlook. We expect bond yields to be rangebound after the rally last week as the market awaits the Bangko Sentral’s (BSP) move this Thursday. Lower April inflation print bolsters view of faster easing but this may weaken the peso as a Fed cut this year grows more uncertain due to inflationary tariffs (25% from 10%) on $200bn worth... Read More

Macroeconomy Elevated NG spending on infrastructure projects, coupled with the spill-over effects of the election should keep growth momentum in Q1 steady. Moreover, the downtrend in inflation print augurs well for higher consumer spending and leads us to expect cuts in reserve ratio requirement (RRR) in Q2. The peso’s recent gains should prove temporary given the huge trade imbalance and... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) raised the Philippines sovereign credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with stable outlook. Thus, PSEi may rally and easily break above 8,000 on account of the credit rating. The market will also take its cue from the April inflation print and earnings results this week from Metro Pacific Investment Corp., Integrated Micro-Electronics, Inc.,... Read More

Yields Rise Ahead of Panda Bonds Outlook. The market is anticipating the issuance of $200-$500mn panda bonds towards the end of this month, which explains the slight uptick in yields last week. Recall that $230mn worth of panda bonds were also issued in March last year. The government is looking at tenors of three to five years as yields followed... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. The PSE Index is expected to trade at the tighter 7,800 – 7,900 range, with downward bias, in the absence of catalysts to support the index in the near term, locally. We expect some selling pressure as the market turn cautious on the 1Q19 GDP results scheduled in May. Despite the lower inflation in the first quarter... Read More

Oil Continues Its Rise Outlook. Rising global oil prices due to output cuts led by the OPEC drove global bond and local bond yields higher last week. OPEC’s enacted output cut of 1.2mn barrels per day last January for six months which may need to be extended until the end of the year, US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to consolidate within the 7,800 – 8,000 range after the index failed to hold above 8,000 due to the 2019 government budget impasse, global growth slowdown reflected in the recent cuts by the IMF and ADB for the global growth outlook and the Philippines to 6.4% from 6.5% for the former and 6.4%... Read More