Author: Marwin Nunez

Market Braces for Easing Outlook. The local 10-yr government bond rate is likely to be rangebound, from a low of 4.89% (today’s lowest) and 5.1% (last week’s high). The consolidation is on the back of the market having fully priced in all the pending rate cuts in the horizon, both that of the BSP (a 25bp cut as soon as... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. A healthy pullback this week is in the cards after the PSEi knocked on the lower end of the band of our 2019 index target of 8,400 – 8,800. This is the natural course after a big rally of 222 points in two days, similar to what were seen early in the year, when the PSEi rose... Read More

Yields Fall on Short Supply Outlook. Expect local bond yields to remain subdued with appetite still mainly in the short-end, which fell last week by an average of 16bps against the long-end’s 9-bp average decline. Buying interest in the short-end was reflected in the dramatic 50-bp drop of the 91-day bill rate to 3.88% and the slight correction in the... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. This week, we expect the resistance of 8,100 to hold, meaning PSEi will again struggle to break above it as the market recently sold on news of the June inflation beat and ahead of Fed’s Powell Congressional appearance amid the US markets’ correction after hitting new all-time highs. US and Philippine second quarter earnings results are coming... Read More

Easing Ahead Outlook. Lower inflation expectations make rate cuts more likely in the near future. Both the Fed and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) kept policy rates steady during their meetings last week, which was expected though the former sounded more dovish. The market expected the Fed to give strong signals towards monetary easing, which reflected on the rate... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the market to remain steady around the 7,900-8,000 range in the absence of catalysts. All eyes are on the G-20 summit where the market expects no trade deal between US and China. Without any clear direction or indication of a deal between US and China, overhang is expected to remain which will keep the index... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. The market will likely hold steady at the 8,000-level this week even with the escalation of the trade war and ensuing likely preponderance of weak global economic data reminding investors of the slowdown in both developed and emerging markets. We believe that the pending policy stimulus in the US such as an early US Fed rate cut... Read More

Macroeconomy The expected ramp-up in infrastructure and other NG expenditures should facilitate a rebound in Q2. Softer upticks in prices of key commodities, likewise, will provide extra boost. We think that the downtrend in headline inflation and cuts in the BSP policy rates and RRR will encourage higher investment and consumer spending starting Q2. Impact of El Niño on Q2-2019... Read More

Further Easing Ahead Outlook. Bangko Sentral (BSP) governor Benjamin Diokno promised for more policy rate and reserve requirement (RRR) cuts in the future, but the timing will depend on economic data. Diokno expects inflation to ease below 2% on base effect as soon as this quarter, while he expects GDP will to reach at least 6% again now that the... Read More

Equities Outlook Outlook. After retesting the index’s resistance of 8,200 yesterday, we expect some profit taking in the market as some names have charted new 52wk high. Also shortened trading week this week (Eid’l Fitr) and next week (Independence Day) may prompt some investors to take profits. We expect that May inflation figure (June 5, 2019) coupled with anticipation of... Read More