Weekly Fixed Income Summary : July 02 – 06, 2018

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Defensive Bond Market Outlook. Investors and traders alike are defensive amid brewing local economic and geopolitical changes: (1) the shift to federalism gains traction as President Duterte endorses the consultative committee’s draft of the constitution; (2) faster-than-expected inflation last June of 5.2%, which analysts expect to peak in the third quarter; and (3) higher government borrowing. The national government is... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : July 02 – 06, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to continue trading around 7,200 as investors remain on the sidelines amidst the lack of catalysts and ahead of the first half earnings which starts by end of the month. Key economic data to monitor are Overseas Filipino Workers remittances and Balance of Payments to be released next week. Market Review.... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : June 25 – 29, 2018

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Equities Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to be range bound at around 7,000-7,300 ahead of the June inflation release on July 5 (Thurs.), with bet at 4.7% year-on-year (y/y), slightly higher than May’s 4.6%. Market is entering the 6th month of correction from the Jan. 29 peak of 9,058, which in the recent past three corrections lasted on the... Read More

The Market Call | June 2018

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Macroeconomy Very strong numbers in the real sector—infrastructure spending, manufacturing and new jobs—should combine with positive consumer sentiment in Q2 & Q3 to push Q2 GDP growth above 7%. Inflation will likely peak in H1 as rice imports have arrived, and US Department of Energy forecasts sliding crude oil prices starting June. With the latest BSP rate hike, the pressure... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : June 18 – 22, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. WWe expect the PSEi to remain volatile around 7,000 as investors sell on strength every time the market goes beyond this level. There’s more downward bias as trade war concerns escalate. China and European Union officials agreed to oppose US protectionism and unilateralism which could later cause a global recession. Key events to monitor are... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : June 11 – 14, 2018

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Upward pressure on yields Outlook. Bond yields are expected to rise if the BSP raises its key policy rate in tomorrow’s meeting. But consensus expectation is that the Monetary Board (MB) will keep policy rates unchanged, digressing from the Fed’s hawkish tone set last week, citing easing inflation data in May. Despite recording a five-year high of 4.6%, inflation in... Read More

Weekly Equities Summary and Outlook : June 11 – 14, 2018

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Equities Summary and Outlook Outlook. We expect the PSEi to trade between 7,300 – 7,600 this week as the market digests the impact of escalating trade war between US & China and sustained PHP weakness. Key economic event this week is the Monetary Board (MB) meeting on June 20 where the market expects policy rates to be kept steady at... Read More

Weekly Fixed Income Summary : June 04 – 08, 2018

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Will BSP Follow Second Fed Hike? Outlook. We expect bond yields to remain elevated this week ahead of the expected Fed hike this Thursday (PH time). U.S. inflation also accelerated in May by 2.8% year-on-year (YoY), the fastest pace in more than six years, reinforcing the Fed’s outlook for gradual interest rate hikes while eroding wage growth that remains subdued... Read More