9:40am Wednesday 21 October 2009 Philippine Stock Exchange Index 2,943.63 ( a few minutes of opening)
When I woke up this morning, first thing I did after saying my morning prayers was to turn to the overnight market reports. I had taken a look at the Dow before I went to bed and it was down 102 points to below 10,000. Apparently, U.S. housing starts which the market anticipated to be 610,000 turned out at 590,000 only reflecting the sluggishness of consumer spending. New building permits, which give a sense of future home construction, unexpectedly fell 1.2 percent to an annual pace of 573,000 units in September. I was pleasantly surprised that the Dow was down only 50 points at the close. Investors had given weight to a U.S. Labor Department report that producer prices dropped an unexpected 0.6 percent in September. Analysts had anticipated prices would remain unchanged after rising 1.7 percent in August. To the market, weak producer prices signals that deflation and not inflation is what the FED will be addressing. Interest rates are not likely to move up anytime soon. Read more
12:20pm Monday 19 October 2009 Philippine Stock Exchange Index closed at 2932.20 (+0.32%)
The markets in the U.S and Europe ended the week down last Friday. The strongest influence in market sentiment was disappointing earnings from GE and B of A which overshadowed better than expected results from the tech sector. With the major markets trading strongly for most of last week, I suppose it is not surprising that investors would try to preserve their gains.
It is the beginning of a new week and if we’re going to trade it properly, we must have some fresh ideas. I’ll begin with high liquidity stocks that I feel are close to oversold levels. Among the stocks that I follow closely, these are AGI, FLI, ALI, TEL & PIP. Among these, I’ll be comfortable buying any and all except FLI which I would sell on rallies. FLI is in danger of being down graded because of its properties that we inundated by the typhoons. My next group liquids due for buying is composed of AC, MBT, BPI, PNB, URC & RLC. These stocks are off their highs, have been subject to some selling, but remain high on my fast horse list for the week. Read more
8:30pm Thursday 15 October 2009 Philippine Stock Exchange Index 2930.70 (market hasn’t opened)
With Wall Street up the way it was, the local market should break out of its pent-up situation. I think this market wants to go up except there is always that fear that because we’ve been very strong since the beginning of the second quarter there should be a big decline. We’ve had several months of strength, and then, 2 months of moving sideways. I don’t think the steep decline that people are afraid of will come before the end of the year. We have to realize that practically all listed companies that trade actively in the market are either very well run companies, or at the very least, run on mere prudence. This is simply because management has to disclose results regularly to the market. Transparency and disclosure is an effective way of promoting good corporate governance.
I’m calling for a new buying impetus for the high profile stocks. My call, however, is skewed to financial stocks. I am very constructive about the prospects of the big banks led by MBT followed by smaller banks UBP, SECB and PNB. I also feel that expensive BPI move above its 45 to 46 range as investors learn to live with slightly lower dividend yields. I also think that TEL will resume its assault above 2600 as it slowly makes its way to 2800. MER should also find impetus in the positive sentiment in the market. The scuttlebutt is that some core shares are to be auctioned to the highest bidder. In sympathy, FPH, FGEN, EDC and BPC are strongly on the rise. If I were to place a bet on just one of these 5 stocks, I’d put my money on MER. If I were not that bold, I’d find refuge in FGEN. My message is simply that you must find some exposure on the play on this group of shares. Read more
9:45am Tuesday 13 October 2009 Philippine Stock Exchange Index 2945.79(just after opening)
Fortunately, Mondays do not usually set the mood of markets. We initially had prices racing up at the open as TEL moved from 2605 to 2645 and MER from 190 to 198. BPI and MWC looked like they were ready move higher and out of the tight range where these two stocks had been trading over the past 5 days. Somehow, buyers did not move with definite conviction and selling in other issues like ALI and MBT overcame any positive sentiment. Actually, other Asia-Pacific markets were trading mixed as Tokyo and Shanghai were moving positive while Hong Kong, Korea and Australia sagged.
I think it is too early in the week to say which way this market is headed. After last weeks tremendous strength, I imagine that the healthy thing to happen is for gains to be pared to affordable levels. Quite ominously, Wall street behaved similar to how the PSEi did Monday. The DJIA opened strong, but as the day wore on, sellers came out of the woodwork which leads me to think that new positions are not yet being built up. I think that it is good that investors are still long cash because the buying power is still in their hands. When the U.S. markets continued to rally in the final days of 3Q, analysts were commenting that the up ticks were not fueled by too much volume. I can only surmise that there will be some profit taking coming out of New York. Read more
10:45am Monday 12 October 2009 Philippine Stock Exchange Index 2953.74 (Mid-session)
We had a phenomenal week in the market – a 4.3% gain in the PSE index versus a 2.9% gain in the DJIA. Considering that the catalyst was a strong U.S. market, we outperformed that market with a surge on Wednesday. We further maintained the gain as the week wore on in spite of some profit taking on Thursday and Friday. Read more
10:05 am Wednesday 7 October 2009 Philippine Stock Exchange Index 2930.80
In these first few days of October, our market has gone to an index low of 2771 to a high of 2884, which was yesterday’s close. The swings were either strongly affected by Wall Street or regional markets. Left to domestic factors alone, we should have tanked a lot more given the natural disasters the country has been having. Economists have been saying that the recent and even on-going typhoon damage will cut anywhere from 0.1% to 0.4% in GDP for the next quarter. Read more
In 1993, UNESCO (United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization) inaugurated October 5th as World Teachers’ Day Read more
10:10am Thursday 1 October 2009 Philippine Stock Exchange Index 2808.04
In spite of falling stock prices in New York overnight, investors were rejoicing because the Dow and the S&P just ended their best quarter in 11 years. In other words, this was the best quarterly performance since the initial stages of the “dot.com” boom of the late nineties. Read more