The Market Call | August 2019

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Macroeconomy The expected rebound in government spending, the improvement in external trade, and below-2% inflation by August should help boost economic performance in the last quarters of 2019. Moreover, we think that real economy and financial markets will be boosted by the anticipated cut in US and local policy rates. Fixed-Income Market The global economic slowdown and trade war impacted... Read More

The Market Call | May 2019

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Macroeconomy The expected ramp-up in infrastructure and other NG expenditures should facilitate a rebound in Q2. Softer upticks in prices of key commodities, likewise, will provide extra boost. We think that the downtrend in headline inflation and cuts in the BSP policy rates and RRR will encourage higher investment and consumer spending starting Q2. Impact of El Niño on Q2-2019... Read More

The Market Call | April 2019

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Macroeconomy Elevated NG spending on infrastructure projects, coupled with the spill-over effects of the election should keep growth momentum in Q1 steady. Moreover, the downtrend in inflation print augurs well for higher consumer spending and leads us to expect cuts in reserve ratio requirement (RRR) in Q2. The peso’s recent gains should prove temporary given the huge trade imbalance and... Read More

The Market Call | March 2019

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Macroeconomy Economic expansion should pick up in Q1 from its 2018 pace driven by heightened infrastructure and renewed consumer spending. The fall of inflation to within BSP target range augurs well for consumer demand, besides the spill-over effect of election-related spending. The downside risk from yet unapproved fiscal budget could have a negative, albeit minimal impact on infrastructure spending in... Read More

The Market Call | February 2019

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Macroeconomy Investment-led spending, driven by heightened infrastructure work, major Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects in full swing, plus renewed consumer spending should propel PH growth faster to 6.8%-7.2% in 2019. We expect consumer demand to pick-up, bolstered by further fall in headline inflation (to 3.1% per BSP) and election-related spending, which in turn will generate more employment, should further boost domestic... Read More

The Market Call | January 2019

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Macroeconomy We expect GDP growth to go faster at 6.8% to 7.2% in 2019 compared to 6.2% in 2018. Domestic demand which rose by 8.5% in 2018 should boost growth in 2019. Investments, via elevated infrastructure spending and strong capital goods imports, will continue to lead growth. Consumer demand should recover especially in 2019, as we expect inflation to decelerate... Read More

The Market Call | December 2018

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Macroeconomy The downtrend in inflation which is expected to decelerate further to below 4% by H2-2019 is likely to boost consumer demand. Along with robust spending on infrastructure and capital outlays, election-related spending and job generation, we think that PH economic growth is poised for a faster expansion in 2019. We think MB’s policy hiking cycle has ended as brakes... Read More